Characteristics of irans ballistic and cruise missiles. With a few notable exceptions, 1 it has become almost conventional wisdom to assume that a nuclear iran is bad for its immediate neighbors, the wider middle east region, and even the world. The missile program is on a different level compared to the nuclear program. Telhami provides ten key points for the next president. Iran ends nuclear limits as killing of iranian general upends. In recent years, irans nuclear program has become an issue of pe and the united states. For more detailed information about irans nuclear program, see crs report rl34544, irans nuclear program.
If iran possessed nuclear weapons, it would be harder to counter its troublesome influence. The united states has expressed concern since the mid1970s that tehran might develop nuclear weapons. Irans construction of gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facilities is currently the main source of proliferation. Many observers on both sides of the atlantic, however, suspect with good reason that iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. Jenkins, a rand analyst and one of the worlds leading experts on nuclear terrorism. The threat from north korea and iran 69 matthew fuhrmann and todd s. Inbothcases, the prospect of these states acquiring a nuclear weapons. Iran insists that its nuclear program is aimed solely at producing peaceful nuclear energy. He argues that the threat of nuclear terrorism is overblown. This research is aimed at obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the nuclear issue and its linkage to regional security. Shortly after the security council statement, ahmadinejad wrote a letter to president george w. Latin america has become a base for irans asymmetric. Iran will ship out all spent fuel for present and future power and research nuclear reactors for 15 years and has committed to rely on light water for future nuclear reactors.
The global threat of iran for much of the past three decades, the islamic republics inflammatory rhetoric and aggressive posture concealed a measure of. Status congressional research service summary iran s nuclear program began during the 1950s. Daniel byman testifies before the house committee on foreign affairs subcommittee on terrorism, nonproliferation, and trade on the global threat of iran post nuclear deal. The accord will end decades of economic sanctions against iran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program. Indeed, in the annual threat assessment presented to the u. North korea, iran, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. This means considering which iranian threats are imminent, which are mutable, and how our own actions affect threat perceptions on the other side of the fence. The achievements presented here have been cataloged primarily by the international atomic energy agency iaea. The iranian nuclear programincluding past activities relevant to developing nuclear weaponshas long been a point of contention around the world.
Full text of the iran nuclear deal washington post. In a few years, when some of the jcpoas restrictions expire, iran will be in a position to resume work on a nuclear device that israel sees as a threat to its existence, the senior official said. Israel claims proof of secret iran plans for nuclear. Statement from nuclear nonproliferation experts on the iran nuclear deal september 2017 more than two years after the conclusion of negotiations on the joint comprehensive plan of action jcpoa by the united states, its international negotiating partners eu, china, france. An iranian nuclear arsenal could further destabilize an already unsettled region and put important u. Politics are politics, but to paraphrase tip oneill, all politics have become partisan, selfseeking, and irresponsible. So declared the opening words of the key judgments of the november 2007 national intelligence estimate nie, irans nuclear intentions and.
This report provides a brief overview of irans nuclear program and describes the legal basis for the actions taken by the iaea board and the security council. This threat assessment brief seeks to evaluate the threat posed by irans nuclear program and by the policies we choose to adopt in response, thereby illuminating viable approaches to threat mitigation. The israeli and arab dimensions of irans nuclear program. However, iran is at least a year and likely further away from developing nuclear weapons. Mossad agents snuck nuclear files out of iran with. Iran s regional behaviour has been neglected and overshadowed by the contentious nuclear issue. The 2007 national intelligence estimate on irans nuclear intentions and capabilities v we judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, tehran halted its nuclear weapons program. The countries that are most concerned about a nuclear iran. June 20 pragmatic cleric hassan rouhani is elected president of iran, with the promise of improving iran s economy by resolving the nuclear standoff.
The united states has a strong interest in preventing such an outcome. Jul 14, 2015 but political leaders respond to public opinion, and the foreign policy they pursue is a product of prioritizing. The arab gulf states in the shadow of the iranian nuclear. The iran nuclear deal and the threat from american. The iran nuclear deal and the threat from american domestic politics.
However, iran does seem intent on acquiring the means to do so quickly. Although air strikes are unlikely to destroy iran s nuclear program and could paradoxically make it easier for iran to acquire weapons, limited u. Top stories south korea warns of second wave virus threat. Based on a suggestion by my academic advisor, professor gottlieb, i changed the title to the. Full text of the iran nuclear deal pdf full text of the iran nuclear deal text. The report concluded that there is at present no intermediaterange ballistic missile irbm or intercontinental ballistic missile icbm threat from iran, and that such a threat, even if it were to emerge, is not imminent. The joint comprehensive plan of action has sharply reduced the size of iran s stock of fissile material, and improved monitoring across the whole iranian nuclear cycle. Any strategy designed to counter tehrans aggression should be carefully considered, and should keep the iran nuclear threat in proper perspective. Statement from nuclear nonproliferation experts on the. The question of nuclearweaponfree zones nwfzs despite the general views of the western world about irans development of nuclear technology, iran believes in nuclear free zones and ultimately in denuclearisation of the world. Under the joint comprehensive plan of action jcpoa iran agreed to limit its nuclear programme and allow enhanced inspections by the international atomic energy agency.
The iran nuclear deal, known as the joint comprehensive plan of action jcpoa, enters its fifth year of implementation under siege from all sides. Heras t he prospect of a nuclear deal between the west and iran has generated a robust debate about whether such an agreement might generate opportunities for u. His current work focuses on the implementation and enforcement of trade controls for pre. On july 1, 2019, the international atomic energy agency iaea announced that iran had exceeded its agreedto limit on the volume of its stockpile of enriched uranium, putting heightened concerns about an iranian nuclear weapons program back in the headlines. June 20 pragmatic cleric hassan rouhani is elected president of iran, with the promise of improving irans economy by resolving the nuclear standoff. Mossad agents snuck nuclear files out of iran with authorities on their tails tv reports say israel utilized expansive operational infrastructure on iranian soil. Gallucci there are similarities and connections, as well as important differences, between the cases of north korea and iran. If the threat from iran s nuclear and ballistic missile program is eliminated, the driving force for missile defense in europe will be eliminated. Iran uses increasingly sophisticated cyber techniques to conduct espionage. Iran intensified its efforts to hide its nuclear files. Nuclear crises with north korea and iran wilson center.
How israel, in dark of night, torched its way to irans. Iran nuclear brief t he international community has been acutely concerned for many years about iran s increasing capacity to produce material for nuclear weapons. Although the iranian navy is weak, iran has the ability to mine two critical sea choke points the strait of hormuz and the bab al mandab strait, and use small boat attacks against commercial shipping. As defined by previous general assembly resolutions, a nuclearfree zone means complete absence of nuclear weapons. Iran iran continues to present a cyber espionage and attack threat. In this way, news coverage of irans nuclear program is reminiscent of news coverage of the runup to the 2003 u. An operation by the mossad earlier this year to steal files relating to iran s nuclear program was conducted on january 31, according to a report by the new york times. North korea, iran, and the proliferation of nuclear.
Senate select committee on intelligence in february 2009, director blair confirmed irans active pursuit of the two more significant components necessary for a nuclear weapons capabilitythe production of fissile material and delivery systems. While iran has proved to be following its commitments, us president donald trump has found a new threat iran s ballistic missile programme and has threatened to scrap the nuclear. Iranian officials claim they are pursuing nuclear technology. Iranian nuclear aspirations and strategic balancing in the. Jan 05, 2020 iran will, however, continue its cooperation with the international atomic energy agency and return to the nuclear limits if the economic sanctions imposed on it are removed and irans interests. Iran s nuclear infrastructure and failed to address iran s malign behavior outside the four corners of the deal. There is no evidence that iran has decided to acquire nuclear weapons. In 1970, iran ratified the nonproliferation treaty npt, making its nuclear program subject to the iaeas verification. Western countries and irans neighbors see the country as a disruptive force in the region. Mossad operatives broke into a warehouse in an industrial area in tehran and, according to the report, had six hours and 29 minutes to finish the job before the morning shift arrived at 7 a. These states are using cyber operations as a lowcost tool of statecraft, and we assess that they will work to use cyber operations to achieve strategic objectives unless they face clear repercussions for their cyber operations. The nuclear deal with iran, signed in july 2015, has substantially reduced the probability of a nuclear threat to the uk emerging over the next decade from iran. Irans presence in latin america is an imminent threat to peace and political stability in the western hemisphere because its forces interact with latin americas deeply rooted revolutionary ideology and various wellintentioned but flawed liberation theology social movements. Apr 30, 2018 after signing the nuclear deal in 2015, iran intensified its efforts to hide its nuclear files.
Russia, china, iran, and north korea will pose the greatest cyber threats to the united states during the next year. Iran has been engaged in talks over its nuclear program with six world powers. Israels iran documents show nuclear deal was built on lies. Top us admiral in mideast warns of growing iranian threat. News coverage has the potential to play a significant, constructive role in finding a lasting resolution to the dispute over irans nuclear program, but journalists and editors first need to. U 2012 iran, israel and the bomb 6 that iran is pursuing a nuclear hedging strategy that aims to develop the indigenous technical capa bility to rapidly produce nuclear weapons at some point, should irans supreme leader decide to do so. However, it is precisely iran s behaviour and goals which feed concerns about its nuclear ambitions. Slow thaw testing possibilities for cooperation with iran after a nuclear deal by ilan goldenberg, jacob stokes, and nicholas a. Have proof of their secret nuclear bomb plans, says israel iran lied about never having a nuclear weapons program, benjamin netanyahu said in a press conference in the governments. This deal cuts off iran s ability to pursue a nuclear weapon through uranium enrichment. Nuclear deal in 2015 iran and six negotiating nations, china, france, germany, russia the uk and the us, announced they had reached an agreement on the iran nuclear problem.
Jul 15, 2018 the israeli government showed three reporters, including one from the times, documents indicating that the iranian nuclear weapons program was larger and more sophisticated than once suspected. Zachary keck, iran has amassed the largest ballistic missile force in the middle east, the national interest, may 22, 2019. Iran s construction of gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facilities is currently the main source of proliferation. The nuclear program of iran has included several research sites, two uranium mines, a research reactor, and uranium processing facilities that include three known uranium enrichment plants. While iran has proved to be following its commitments, us president donald trump has found a new threat iran s ballistic missile programme and has threatened to scrap the nuclear agreement. Israels iran documents show nuclear deal was built on. Jul 15, 2018 read files on irans nuclear program seized by israel. The iran nuclear deal and the threat from american domestic politics september 10, 2015 it is all too apparent that the american people are going to be subjected to the longest, most expensive, and most painful presidential campaign in history, and will have to suffer at least through november 2016. The enduring threat from iran s ballistic missiles june 10, 2015 3 iran s missile threat iran has a wide variety of rockets and missiles that go from shortrange tactical systems, like multiple rocket launchers, to short and medium range artillery rockets, to cruise missiles and. The jcpoa has also enhanced the transparency of irans nuclear activities, mainly by fostering improved access to iranian nuclear facilities for the iaea and its investigative authorities under the additional protocol to its comprehensive safeguards agreement. An unappreciated development over the last year was israels seizure in tehran of significant portions of a nuclear archive that contained tens of thousands of files and cds relating to irans past efforts at nuclear weapon design, development, and manufacturing.
How the mossad broke into an iranian facility and stole. The united states must address the concerns of key regional actors as it works to contain iran s nuclear program, contends shibley telhami. Israel claims proof of secret iran plans for nuclear weapons. This is a brief history of iran s progress toward the ability to build a nuclear weapon. The iran nuclear deal and the threat from american domestic. This raises the question, though, just how real is the threat of nuclear terrorism. The emphasis is on achievements, rather than motives. Design characteristics of irans ballistic and cruise missiles last update. This threat assessment brief seeks to evaluate the threat posed by iran s nuclear program and by the policies we choose to adopt in response, thereby illuminating. Iran does pose an existential threat to middle east neighbors and a major threat to the world economy. Related content is available on the website for the nuclear threat initiative, this material is produced independently for nti by the james martin center for nonproliferation studies at the.
Irans contracts with other nations to obtain nuclear reactors were also known to the iaea but support for the contracts was withdrawn after a u. Status congressional research service summary irans nuclear program began during the 1950s. The 2007 nie on irans nuclear intentions and capabilities. Highlights iran is years rather than months away from a credible nuclear weapons capability. The problem with iran is much bigger than just the nuclear threat t he first point i want to make is that we are way too focused on this aspect of iran policy. It is important to put the iranian threat in context. With sufficient fissile material and a warhead design, iran could use its existing ballistic missiles to pose a credible nuclear threat throughout the region. Dilemmas, responses and the future 1 the iranian nuclear issue and security in the persian gulf have long been high on the united nations peace and security agenda. Carnegie endowment for international peace xi september 2012 the first denialofservice attacks against u. In response to iranian defiance, the unsc unanimously passed resolution 1696 in july, which demanded that iran suspend enrichment activities, banned the international transfer of nuclear and missile technologies to iran, and froze the foreign assets of twelve individuals and ten organizations involved with the iranian nuclear program. Iran is in possession of improved and dangerous weapons systems that give tehran the ability to threaten some of the worlds most important waterways, according to the top american admiral in the. The iran deal and future arms control processes by ariane m.
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